Probability
Random experiments, sample spaces, event algebra, mutually exclusive vs exhaustive events, Kolmogorov's axioms & addition/complement laws.
Topic 14.1 – 14.1.2: Random Experiments, Outcomes, Sample Space & Compound Events
H) or Tail (T) — yet nobody can predict the exact result ahead of time! Any experiment whose full menu of outcomes is known, while individual results stay unpredictable, is a Random Experiment. That complete menu is the Sample Space (S), and every subset you care about is an Event (E ⊆ S)!n coins → 2ⁿ; n dice → 6ⁿ){HH} | Compound: 2+ outcomes {HT, TH}S = Sure event (always occurs) | ∅ = Impossible event (never occurs!)S as the entire ice-cream menu card, and an Event E as your chosen subset order! 1 scoop = Simple; 2+ scoops = Compound!S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Asking for "an even number" picks E = {2, 4, 6} (3 outcomes → Compound Event). Asking for "number 7" picks ∅ (Impossible Event)!- 1Tossing Coins: 1 coin →
{H, T}(2); 2 coins →{HH, HT, TH, TT}(4); 3 coins →2³ = 8outcomes. - 2Rolling Two Dice: Ordered pairs
(x, y)withx, y ∈ {1..6}give6 × 6 = 36sample points! - 3Branching Experiments: Toss a coin; if Head roll a die, if Tail toss coin again →
S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, TH, TT}(8outcomes!).
| Event Type | Subset Size in S | Example (Rolling One Die) |
|---|---|---|
| Impossible Event | n(E) = 0 (∅) | Getting a multiple of 7: ∅ |
| Simple (Elementary) | n(E) = 1 | Getting exact number 5: {5} |
| Compound Event | n(E) ≥ 2 | Getting a prime number: {2, 3, 5} |
| Sure Event | E = S | Getting a number < 7: {1,2,3,4,5,6} |
S = {HH, HT, TT} (only 3 outcomes!) for two coins — NO! First coin Head + second Tail (HT) is completely distinct from TH, so 2 coins ALWAYS have 4 outcomes! (2) Saying 2 dice have 6 + 6 = 12 outcomes — outcomes MULTIPLY (6 × 6 = 36), never add!Topic 14.1.3 – 14.1.5: Mutually Exclusive vs Exhaustive Events (Set Algebra Mapping)
A = {1, 3, 5}) AND Even (B = {2, 4, 6}) at the exact same instant? IMPOSSIBLE! Their overlap is empty (A ∩ B = ∅), so they are Mutually Exclusive. Plus, combining them fills all 6 faces (A ∪ B = S), so they are Exhaustive too! Probability events speak pure Set Algebra!A or B = A ∪ B | A and B = A ∩ B | A not B = A − BA ∩ B = ∅ (zero overlap!)S together: E₁ ∪ E₂ ∪ ... ∪ Eₙ = S∩ = ∅); Exhaustive = Full Union (∪ = S)! Remember: two events can be Exclusive WITHOUT being Exhaustive (e.g. {1,2} and {5,6} on a die)!∪). Whenever it says AND, reach for Intersection (∩). Whenever it says NOT, reach for Complement (')!| English Event Statement | Set Notation | Die Example (A = {2,3,5}, B = {1,3,5}) |
|---|---|---|
| Event "A or B" | A ∪ B | {1, 2, 3, 5} |
| Event "A and B" | A ∩ B | {3, 5} (not exclusive!) |
| Event "A but not B" | A − B = A ∩ B' | {2} |
| Event "not A" / "neither A nor B" | A' / A' ∩ B' = (A ∪ B)' | A' = {1, 4, 6} / (A∪B)' = {4, 6} |
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}):•
A = {1, 2, 3}, B = {3, 4}, C = {5, 6}: Since A ∪ B ∪ C = S, they are Exhaustive! Yet A ∩ B = {3} ≠ ∅, so A and B are NOT Mutually Exclusive!•
E₁ = {1, 2} and E₂ = {5, 6}: E₁ ∩ E₂ = ∅ (Mutually Exclusive!), yet E₁ ∪ E₂ ≠ S (NOT Exhaustive!).
Eᵢ ∩ Eⱼ = ∅ for Exclusive, AND (2) Full union ⋃ Eᵢ = S for Exhaustive! Also note: all simple events of S are automatically mutually exclusive and exhaustive!Topic 14.2: Axiomatic Approach to Probability (0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1, Sum = 1)
70% of the time (0.7) and Tails shows 30% (0.3)? Counting equal outcomes fails for unfair coins! In 1933, Russian mathematician A. N. Kolmogorov built three crystal-clear Axioms assigning probability weights to sets — working smoothly for EVERY fair OR biased experiment!P(E) ≥ 0 | (2) P(S) = 1 | (3) If E∩F=∅, P(E∪F) = P(E)+P(F)S = {ω₁, ..., ωₙ}: 0 ≤ P(ωᵢ) ≤ 1 AND Σ P(ωᵢ) = 1P(A) = Σ P(ωᵢ) for ωᵢ ∈ A | P(∅) = 0P(S) = 1 as one whole ₹1 coin shared among all outcomes: NO outcome gets negative money (< 0), NO outcome gets over ₹1, and ALL pieces MUST total exactly 1.00!1? Red card! Total of all outcomes in S equal to 0.9 or 1.2 instead of 1? Red card!- 1Rule 1 (Non-negative): Every
P(ωᵢ) ∈ [0, 1](never negative, never> 1). - 2Rule 2 (Total = 1): Sum of probabilities of ALL elementary outcomes in
SMUST equal1. - 3Rule 3 (Disjoint Additivity): For disjoint events, probabilities add; taking
F = ∅provesP(∅) = 0!
S = {ω₁, ω₂, ω₃, ω₄}:•
(0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4) → All in [0, 1] and sum = 1.0 → VALID!•
(−0.1, 0.5, 0.4, 0.2) → Sums to 1.0, YET −0.1 < 0 → INVALID!•
(1/6, 1/6, 1/6, 1/6) → Sum = 4/6 ≠ 1 → INVALID!
1 and missing a negative value like −0.1! BOTH conditions (0 ≤ P(ωᵢ) ≤ 1 AND Σ = 1) must pass! (2) Consistency check: Can P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.7, P(A ∩ B) = 0.6? NO! Because A ∩ B ⊆ A forces P(A ∩ B) ≤ P(A), yet 0.6 > 0.5!Topic 14.2.2: Equally Likely Outcomes & Playing Cards / Dice / Coin Models
52 playing cards is completely fair, every outcome shares equal probability 1n(S). Suddenly probability turns into pure counting: P(E) = n(E) / n(S)! Whether picking Red Kings from a 52-card pack or forming a 2-person committee using ⁿCᵣ, one simple fraction rules them all!P(E) = n(E)n(S) (ONLY when outcomes are equally likely!)2..12, counts form a perfect pyramid: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1!P(E) = n(E)/n(S) work for a fair deck? Because all 52 cards have equal chance 1/52, so adding 1/52 for each of the n(E) winning cards gives n(E)/52! For an unfair die, NEVER use n(E)/n(S)!| 52-Card Category | Count | Probability | Two-Dice Sum | Ways out of 36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Each Suit (♠, ♣, ♥, ♦) | 13 | 13/52 = 1/4 | Sum 2 or 12 | 1 each |
| Red or Black | 26 | 26/52 = 1/2 | Sum 6 or 8 | 5 each |
| Face Cards (J, Q, K) | 12 | 12/52 = 3/13 | Sum 7 (Peak!) | 6 (6/36 = 1/6) |
| Red King / Black Ace | 2 | 2/52 = 1/26 | Doublets (x=y) | 6 (6/36 = 1/6) |
• Card drawn is Red OR King:
26 Red + 4 Kings − 2 Red Kings = 28 ⇒ 2852 = 713!• Committee of 2 from 2 Men & 2 Women (NCERT Ex 8): Total =
⁴C₂ = 6. P(1 man, 1 woman) = ²C₁ × ²C₁⁴C₂ = 46 = 23!
12 total, NOT 16!). (2) Using n(E)/n(S) on a loaded die (e.g. a die with two faces marked 1, three faces 2, one face 3: P(2) = 3/6 = 1/2, NOT 1/3!). (3) Double-counting Red Kings in "Red or King"!Topic 14.2.3: Addition Theorem: P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)
50% of students play Football (A), 40% play Cricket (B), and 15% play BOTH (A ∩ B). What is the chance a random student plays Football OR Cricket? Adding 0.50 + 0.40 = 0.90 double-counts the dual-sport kids sitting in the middle overlap! Subtract that overlap once: 0.50 + 0.40 − 0.15 = 0.75!P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)A ∩ B = ∅, P(A ∩ B) = 0 ⇒ P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A − B) = P(A) − P(A ∩ B) | P(only one) = P(A) + P(B) − 2P(A ∩ B)2 P(A ∩ B) for "Only ONE of A or B"? Because P(A) + P(B) counts the middle lens TWICE, while "only one" wants the middle lens ZERO times!A − B), Both (A ∩ B), and Only B (B − A)! Adding P(A) + P(B) accidentally stacks the middle piece twice, so subtracting P(A ∩ B) once restores the exact Union!1)
P(A or B) = P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A ∩ B)2)
P(A but not B) = P(A ∩ B') = P(A) − P(A ∩ B)3)
P(neither A nor B) = P(A' ∩ B') = 1 − P(A ∪ B)4) 3-Event Rule:
P(A∪B∪C) = P(A)+P(B)+P(C) − P(A∩B) − P(B∩C) − P(C∩A) + P(A∩B∩C)
P(E) = 0.05, P(F) = 0.10, P(E ∩ F) = 0.02:•
P(E ∪ F) = 0.05 + 0.10 − 0.02 = 0.13 (at least one qualifies)• Both will NOT qualify:
P(E' ∩ F') = 1 − P(E ∪ F) = 1 − 0.13 = 0.87• Only ONE qualifies:
(0.05 − 0.02) + (0.10 − 0.02) = 0.03 + 0.08 = 0.11!
P(A) + P(B) blindly when events are NOT mutually exclusive! (2) Mixing up "at least one of A or B" (P(A ∪ B) = P(A)+P(B)−P(A∩B)) with "only one of A or B" (P(A)+P(B)−2P(A∩B))! Notice the factor of 2!Topic 14.2.4 & Misc: Complement Rule P(not A) = 1 − P(A) & 'At-Least-One' Tricks
1H, 2H, 3H forces you to list 7 outcomes! Instead, ask: what is the ONLY outcome with ZERO Heads? Just TTT (1/8)! Subtract from 1: P(at least one H) = 1 − 1/8 = 7/8! Flipping tough questions upside down saves minutes in exams!P(A') = P(not A) = 1 − P(A) (since A ∪ A' = S & A ∩ A' = ∅)P(at least one) = 1 − P(NONE) (1-step shortcut!)P(A' ∪ B') = 1 − P(A ∩ B) (De Morgan's flip!)1 − P(opposite single event)!A and its opposite A' split the entire universe into two non-overlapping halves, P(A) + P(A') = 1 ALWAYS! Whenever counting A needs 5 cases and counting A' needs just 1 case, ALWAYS compute 1 − P(A')!- 1Spot the Opposite ("None"): Opposite of "at least 1 prize in 10 tickets" is "0 prizes in all 10 tickets".
- 2Compute Easy Case: For 10,000 lottery tickets with 10 prizes,
P(no prize with 2 tickets) = ⁹⁹⁹⁰C₂¹⁰⁰⁰⁰C₂. - 3Flip via
1 − P(...): Also remember De Morgan's twin:P(neither) = 1 − P(A ∪ B)vsP(at least one fails) = 1 − P(A ∩ B)!
Total random arrangements =
3! = 6 (ABC, ACB, BAC, BCA, CAB, CBA).How many put ZERO letters in the right envelope? Only
2 (BCA, CAB)!Therefore
P(at least 1 in right envelope) = 1 − 26 = 46 = 23!
• "BOTH A and B do NOT happen" =
P(A' ∩ B') = 1 − P(A ∪ B)• "AT LEAST ONE of A or B does NOT happen" =
P(A' ∪ B') = 1 − P(A ∩ B)!Reading carelessly swaps
∪ and ∩ and costs 2 marks!Solved Previous Year Questions (Kerala DHSE & NCERT)
Q1 (Kerala HSE March • 1 Marks): Find the probability that a leap year selected at random will contain 53 Sundays.
Possible pairs:
(Mon,Tue), (Tue,Wed), (Wed,Thu), (Thu,Fri), (Fri,Sat), (Sat,Sun), (Sun,Mon) (7 pairs).2 pairs include Sunday ⇒ Probability =
27.Q2 (Kerala HSE Say • 1 Marks): Check whether P(A) = 0.5, P(B) = 0.7 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.6 are consistently defined.
Since
A ∩ B ⊆ A, we must have P(A ∩ B) ≤ P(A), whereas here 0.6 > 0.5 (also giving P(A − B) = −0.1 < 0, impossible!).Q3 (Kerala HSE March • 2 Marks): A coin is tossed. If it shows head, we draw a ball from a bag containing 3 blue and 4 white balls; if it shows tail, we throw a die. Describe the sample space.
B₁, B₂, B₃ and white balls W₁, W₂, W₃, W₄.S = {HB₁, HB₂, HB₃, HW₁, HW₂, HW₃, HW₄, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}.Total outcomes:
n(S) = 7 + 6 = 13.Q4 (Kerala HSE Model • 2 Marks): One card is drawn from a well-shuffled deck of 52 cards. Find the probability that the card will be (i) a diamond, (ii) not an ace.
n(S) = 52.• (i) 13 diamonds ⇒
P(diamond) = 1352 = 14.• (ii) 4 aces ⇒
P(ace) = 452 = 113 ⇒ P(not ace) = 1 − 113 = 1213.Q5 (NCERT / DHSE March • 3 Marks): Given P(A) = 0.54, P(B) = 0.69 and P(A ∩ B) = 0.35. Find (i) P(A ∪ B), (ii) P(A' ∩ B'), (iii) P(A ∩ B').
P(A ∪ B) = 0.54 + 0.69 − 0.35 = 0.88.• (ii)
P(A' ∩ B') = P((A ∪ B)') = 1 − 0.88 = 0.12.• (iii)
P(A ∩ B') = P(A) − P(A ∩ B) = 0.54 − 0.35 = 0.19.Q6 (Kerala HSE March • 3 Marks): In a class of 60 students, 30 opted for NCC, 32 opted for NSS and 24 opted for both. If one student is selected at random, find the probability that the student opted for: (i) NCC or NSS, (ii) neither NCC nor NSS, (iii) NSS but not NCC.
P(NCC) = 30/60, P(NSS) = 32/60, P(NCC ∩ NSS) = 24/60.• (i)
P(NCC ∪ NSS) = 30 + 32 − 2460 = 3860 = 1930.• (ii)
P(neither) = 1 − 1930 = 1130.• (iii)
P(NSS − NCC) = 32 − 2460 = 860 = 215.Q7 (Kerala HSE Say • 3 Marks): A committee of two persons is selected from two men and two women. What is the probability that the committee will have (a) no man, (b) one man, (c) two men?
⁴C₂ = 6.• (a) No man (2 women):
²C₂⁶ = 16.• (b) One man & one woman:
²C₁ × ²C₁6 = 46 = 23.• (c) Two men:
²C₂6 = 16. (Check: 1/6 + 2/3 + 1/6 = 1!)Q8 (NCERT / DHSE Model • 4 Marks): Two students Anil and Ashima appeared in an exam. P(Anil qualifies) = 0.05, P(Ashima qualifies) = 0.10, and P(both qualify) = 0.02. Find P that: (a) both will not qualify, (b) at least one will not qualify, (c) only one of them will qualify.
E = Anil qualifies, F = Ashima qualifies. P(E ∪ F) = 0.05 + 0.10 − 0.02 = 0.13.• (a) Both not:
P(E' ∩ F') = 1 − P(E ∪ F) = 1 − 0.13 = 0.87.• (b) At least one not:
P(E' ∪ F') = 1 − P(E ∩ F) = 1 − 0.02 = 0.98.• (c) Only one:
P(E) + P(F) − 2P(E ∩ F) = 0.05 + 0.10 − 2(0.02) = 0.11.Q9 (Kerala HSE March • 4 Marks): Two dice are thrown. A: getting an even number on first die; B: getting an odd number on first die; C: getting sum ≤ 5. Describe (i) A', (ii) not B, (iii) A or B, (iv) A and B, (v) A and not C.
n(S) = 36.• (i)
A' = odd on first die = B (18 pairs).• (ii)
not B = even on first die = A (18 pairs).• (iii)
A or B = A ∪ B = S (all 36 pairs; exhaustive!).• (iv)
A and B = A ∩ B = ∅ (mutually exclusive!).•
C = {(1,1),(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(3,1),(3,2),(4,1)}.• (v)
A ∩ C' = first die even AND sum > 5 = 14 pairs: all 18 in A except (2,1),(2,2),(2,3),(4,1).